The Environment Agency issued this update at 1624 on Sunday 29th September:
“Flood Alert in force: Southampton Water and Hamble.
Flooding is possible for: Coast around Southampton Water including Calshot, Lepe and the Hamble Estuary.
Early Monday morning’s tide at 00:12 and 02:30 on 30/09/2019 is higher than normal due to unsettled weather with light Westerly Force 4 winds. The weather increases tide table values by 0.28 m (surge). The forecast tide is 5.15 metres Chart Datum (2.41 mAOD) at Southampton. This alert is being issued as a precautionary measure, taking into account an underperformance in the forecast tide level last night. Any impact will be more minor and less than observed earlier today. For 1 hour either side of high water, water may flood the lower floor level of Eling Tide Mill. Flooding to boat yards, roads and car parks in Hamble, Warsash and Marchwood may also occur.
Until Tuesday evening (01/10/2019)‚ tides are high enough to cause minor impacts at each high water. We continue to monitor forecasts. We’ll issue further advice. At Priory Road, residents may wish to install flood protection as a very precautionary measure. We will update this message by 10:00 on 30/09/2019″
My Note: The surge on the midday tide on Sunday was well predicted by the NTSLF model and resulted in a tide level of about 5.2m for Southampton.